Chatting the Tropics With Mike: Fred techniques near Puerto Rico

Oriented for Hispaniola & South Bahamas

Look At The 1st Caution Hurricane Hub “Survival Guide”


Prospective neighborhood – Jax/NE Fl./SE Ga. impacts from“Fred” DEPENDENT ON PRESENT OUTLOOK:

* increase in warm dampness delayed through the month into very early next week

* many heavier bands of baths & t’storms Sunday/Mon./Tue.

* isolated waterspouts & tornadoes

* a little bit of breezy

* minimal tornado spike


The powerful latitude trend inserted the NE Caribbean Tue. & was actually updated south of Puerto Rico to tropical assault “Fred” Tue. nights – the 6th known as hurricane of the Atlantic year & about 2 1/2 days in front of the avg. day of Aug. 28th. The avg. big date towards very first typhoon, incidentally, is Aug. 10th. Elsa shortly turned into a hurricane in early July. Back into Fred – estimate designs have creep into very respectable settlement on improvement and on the monitor & speed.

Fred will move continuously west/northwest with a center which could usually tend to “jump all around”

a bit until & unless a good interior main is initiated. Fred will impede by latter into the week into the few days like the force rounds the american side of the intensive Bermuda significant. Among deeper complicating elements is definitely terrain discussion such as Puerto Rico & Hispaniola & possibly Cuba. There’s a fair amount of dry-air to get over though general problems to turn into even more positive later inside times. It would appear that the defectively presented facility will mostly steer clear of Puerto Rico & most likely certainly not spend a lot of your time across the Dominican Republic, so Fred may emerge over the further SW Atlantic in fairly “decent” structure. Both GFS & European have actually initialized well & deliver the system with the Fl strait along the saturday & around the east gulf however the American unit continues to be much slower & somewhat west although the GFS is a little efficient & much more north & east. The GFS has already established a right/east bias the last two weeks with warm cyclones around E. Pacific, although design had been a visible “winner” during Elsa 4-5 weeks hence. A stronger shape seems to be the most sensible prediction now given how stout the ridge continues since basically will. And so, a minimum of a somewhat even more westward monitor – before switching considerably north – is apparently the best choice today.

Hence. tropical tornado issues arise over many better Antilles yet another week however with improving ailments for Puerto Rico by late Wed. while squalls & sturdy wind gusts upset Hispaniola & the northern area & east coasts of Cuba. A tropical system/cyclone of “some type” are near Fl. & the Eastern Gulf covering the saturday into early next week.

I cannot highlight this sufficient: stay tuned in & sit up currently about most current projections.

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